Mortality outcomes with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine in COVID-19 from an international collaborative meta-analysis of randomized trials.
Axfors, Cathrine; Schmitt, Andreas M; Janiaud, Perrine; Van't Hooft, Janneke; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief; Abdo, Ehab F; Abella, Benjamin S; Akram, Javed; Amaravadi, Ravi K; Angus, Derek C; Arabi, Yaseen M; Azhar, Shehnoor; Baden, Lindsey R; Baker, Arthur W; Belkhir, Leila; Benfield, Thomas; Berrevoets, Marvin A H; Chen, Cheng-Pin; Chen, Tsung-Chia; Cheng, Shu-Hsing; Cheng, Chien-Yu; Chung, Wei-Sheng; Cohen, Yehuda Z; Cowan, Lisa N; Dalgard, Olav; de Almeida E Val, Fernando F; de Lacerda, Marcus V G; de Melo, Gisely C; Derde, Lennie; Dubee, Vincent; Elfakir, Anissa; Gordon, Anthony C; Hernandez-Cardenas, Carmen M; Hills, Thomas; Hoepelman, Andy I M; Huang, Yi-Wen; Igau, Bruno; Jin, Ronghua; Jurado-Camacho, Felipe; Khan, Khalid S; Kremsner, Peter G; Kreuels, Benno; Kuo, Cheng-Yu; Le, Thuy; Lin, Yi-Chun; Lin, Wu-Pu; Lin, Tse-Hung; Lyngbakken, Magnus Nakrem; McArthur, Colin; McVerry, Bryan J; Meza-Meneses, Patricia; Monteiro, Wuelton M; Morpeth, Susan C; Mourad, Ahmad; Mulligan, Mark J; Murthy, Srinivas; Naggie, Susanna; Narayanasamy, Shanti; Nichol, Alistair; Novack, Lewis A; O'Brien, Sean M; Okeke, Nwora Lance; Perez, Léna; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perrin, Laurent; Remigio-Luna, Arantxa; Rivera-Martinez, Norma E; Rockhold, Frank W; Rodriguez-Llamazares, Sebastian; Rolfe, Robert; Rosa, Rossana; Røsjø, Helge; Sampaio, Vanderson S; Seto, Todd B; Shahzad, Muhammad; Soliman, Shaimaa; Stout, Jason E; Thirion-Romero, Ireri; Troxel, Andrea B; Tseng, Ting-Yu; Turner, Nicholas A; Ulrich, Robert J; Walsh, Stephen R; Webb, Steve A; Weehuizen, Jesper M; Velinova, Maria; Wong, Hon-Lai; Wrenn, Rebekah; Zampieri, Fernando G; Zhong, Wu; Moher, David; Goodman, Steven N; Ioannidis, John P A; Hemkens, Lars G
Substantial COVID-19 research investment has been allocated to randomized clinical trials (RCTs) on hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, which currently face recruitment challenges or early discontinuation. We aim to estimate the effects of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine on survival in COVID-19 from all currently available RCT evidence, published and unpublished. We present a rapid meta-analysis of ongoing, completed, or discontinued RCTs on hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment for any COVID-19 patients (protocol: https://osf.io/QESV4/ ). We systematically identified unpublished RCTs (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, Cochrane COVID-registry up to June 11, 2020), and published RCTs (PubMed, medRxiv and bioRxiv up to October 16, 2020). All-cause mortality has been extracted (publications/preprints) or requested from investigators and combined in random-effects meta-analyses, calculating odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), separately for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine. Prespecified subgroup analyses include patient setting, diagnostic confirmation, control type, and publication status. Sixty-three trials were potentially eligible. We included 14 unpublished trials (1308 patients) and 14 publications/preprints (9011 patients). Results for hydroxychloroquine are dominated by RECOVERY and WHO SOLIDARITY, two highly pragmatic trials, which employed relatively high doses and included 4716 and 1853 patients, respectively (67% of the total sample size). The combined OR on all-cause mortality for hydroxychloroquine is 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.20; I² = 0%; 26 trials; 10,012 patients) and for chloroquine 1.77 (95%CI: 0.15, 21.13, I² = 0%; 4 trials; 307 patients). We identified no subgroup effects. We found that treatment with hydroxychloroquine is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 patients, and there is no benefit of chloroquine. Findings have unclear generalizability to outpatients, children, pregnant women, and people with comorbidities.
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