A risk score for prediction of venous thromboembolism in gynecologic cancer: The Thrombogyn score.

A risk score for prediction of venous thromboembolism in gynecologic cancer: The Thrombogyn score. Norris, Lucy A; Ward, Mark P; O'Toole, Sharon A; Marchocki, Zibi; Ibrahim, Nadia; Khashan, Ali S; Abu Saadeh, Feras; Gleeson, Noreen Background: Gynecologic cancers are associated with high rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE), which is exacerbated by pelvic surgery and chemotherapy. Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk score for VTE in patients with gynecologic cancer and to test the predictive ability of the score following addition of procoagulant biomarker data. Patients and methods: Clinical and laboratory variables were used to develop a risk score for the prediction of VTE in patients with gynecological cancer (n = 616), which was validated in a separate cohort of patients (n = 406). Endogenous thrombin potential and D-dimer levels were determined in a subset (n = 290) of patients and used to produce an extended score in the validation cohort. Results: Multivariable regression analysis identified BMI >30, hemoglobin <11.5 g/dL and chemotherapy as independent predictors of VTE, which formed the Thrombogyn score. Following competing risk regression analysis, subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs), adjusted for cancer stage, were 8.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.69-43.77) in the high-risk group (score = 2-3) and 4.12 (95% CI, 0.85-20.15) in the intermediate-risk group (score = 1) compared with the low-risk group (score = 0). SHRs for the validation cohort were 6.26 (95% CI, 1.24-31.39) and 3.00 (95% CI, 0.67-13.32), respectively. Cumulative incidence of VTE in the validation cohort high-risk group was 10.34% (95% CI, 6.51-16.41) per women-years compared with 1.06% (95% CI, 0.26-4.26) in the low-risk group. Using the extended Thrombogyn score, adjusted SHRs were 16.83 (95% CI, 4.20-67.37) in the high-risk group with a cumulative incidence of 21.15% (95% CI, 10.32-45.24). External validation of the score is required. Conclusions: The Thrombogyn score identifies patients with gynecologic cancer at high and low risk of VTE. Addition of biomarker data improves the predictive power of the score.